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BTC continues to seesaw, $84.4K is the threshold, short liquidity looms overhead at $87K
After completing a typical liquidity sweep over the weekend, Bitcoin is once again contesting the upper edge of its range. After Bitcoin stalled at $87K last week, buyers stepped in between $81K and $82K, with the MA50 daily line becoming a short-term line of defense, and market sentiment shifting from panic to cautious dip-buying.
At present, overhead resistance is dense. CoinAnk's heatmap shows that BTC has re-entered the "high-temperature zone" of $83.8K to $84.2K, but the thickest liquidity remains above $86.8K to $87.5K. If spot buying follows through, short covering could become the next leg of upside momentum. Traders view $80K to $82K as core support, $80.8K as the downside target if that is lost, and $77K to $79K as a stronger support band. If $84.4K is effectively reclaimed, the unswept high at $87K, $90K, and even $94K will come into view; if $82K is lost again, the market will retest $81K or even $80K.
Several traders noted that the earlier divergences in the daily RSI, MACD/PPO, and MFI have already played out into a pullback, and the current focus has shifted to whether spot buying can reappear around $86K. Overall sentiment has shifted from "waiting for a deeper pullback" to "the next leg up after the correction ends," but most still emphasize patiently waiting for confirmation signals. On the options and liquidation front, around $80K is a dense band of protective puts and stop losses, above $87K is a resonance zone for short covering and call option strike prices, and $84.4K is the threshold for confirming a breakout.
Today's highlights:
Data: Tokens such as CRO and ARB will see large unlocks this week, with CRO's unlock worth about $69.5 million
This week's preview | U.S. September CPI inflation data will be released on Wednesday; Paradigm's annual conference Frontiers will be held, covering multiple topics including stablecoins and AI
Unichain will migrate to OP Enterprise on October 13, with the testnet migrating today
Kalshi may terminate its trading volume incentive program on October 13
Aptos (APT) unlocks about 11.31 million tokens, worth about $9.5 million
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: RSR, XRP, NEAR, BTC, ONDO
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million last week, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows
Spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $542 million last week
Spot SOL ETFs saw a net outflow of $24.8109 million last week
Spot XRP ETFs saw a net inflow of $11.3068 million last week
Spot HYPE ETFs saw a net outflow of $9.4269 million last week
Today's top gainers among the top 100 coins by market cap: ZRO up 20.3%, ICP up 13.8%, FIL up 13.8%, NEAR up 10.9%, ALGO up 10.7%.
U.S. stock futures sentiment warms, IREN ignited by Anthropic
U.S. stock index futures were broadly mildly bullish, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.14%, S&P 500 futures up 0.24%, and Dow futures up 0.19%.
BIT overnight session data shows that the storage sector came under profit-taking pressure after its previous sharp rally, especially as the market bets on AI demand while also worrying that the risk-reward in high-flying chip stocks is no longer cheap. Micron Technology fell 0.95%, SanDisk fell 1.19%, SK Hynix fell 0.61%, and Intel fell 0.22%.
The standout in the overnight session was IREN, which surged 8.92%. Market chatter suggested that Anthropic has signed an undisclosed multi-year cloud services agreement with IREN to expand its roughly $530 billion data center leasing partnership network, reigniting the compute leasing thesis. Crypto-related assets also heated up alongside BTC's rebound, with Strategy up 2.76% in the overnight session and IBIT up 2.17%.
Tech rebounds near highs, bank sentiment cools
Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher across the board, with the Dow up 0.83%, the S&P up 0.59%, and the Nasdaq up 0.64%, all posting weekly gains. Over the weekend, Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" alongside escalating Middle East tensions, and crude oil edged lower; gold and silver rebounded on dip-buying, with New York futures gold returning to around $4,200. UBS noted that it may retest the $4,000 support in the short term and gave a higher long-term target. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated at about 5.24%, and Pimco CIO Ivascyn warned that high oil prices and public debt could push it toward 6%. Bessent revealed that federal debt is already about $41 trillion and plans to announce a cleanup plan after the midterm elections.
Tech stocks led the rebound, but Deutsche Bank warned that the rally since July is nearing a short-term high, with about 4% upside and historical downside risk of as much as 16%, prompting it to downgrade tech and large-cap growth stocks from overweight to neutral. Goldman Sachs data shows that U.S. AI compute short-term rental prices remain far above the threshold for self-built costs, and once supply catches up, spot high prices may fall, creating both opportunities and risks for CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, and others. In addition, as bank earnings season begins, a Truist survey shows that only 35% of institutions expect bank stocks to outperform the market, far below 68% in July; the financial sector has fallen about 4% over the past month, and the combined market value of the five largest banks has shrunk by about $270 billion.
Crypto-related stocks performed strongly. According to BIT U.S. Stocks data, Strategy rose about 1.9%, Coinbase rose more than 4%, Robinhood rose nearly 1.9%, and Circle rose more than 4.5%; among miners, Hut 8 surged nearly 6%, while Riot and Terawulf edged higher, and some names such as Marathon and CleanSpark came under pressure.
Korean stocks slump, Japan closed, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks show structural divergence
Japan's stock market was closed on October 12 for Sports Day. South Korea's KOSPI opened lower and drifted down today, closing down 3.65%. Korean tech stocks failed to carry over the risk appetite from Friday's U.S. stock rally, instead hit by concentrated foreign selling of semiconductor heavyweights, cost pressure in the memory supply chain, and rising expectations for Bank of Korea rate hikes.
Among individual stocks, SK Hynix closed down more than 4.5%, and Samsung Electronics fell 4.39%. Market reports said ASML plans to raise prices for lithography machine components supplied to South Korea by 10% starting in January 2027, intensifying investor concerns about semiconductor manufacturing costs. KOSDAQ also closed sharply lower, down 4.83%, with small-cap tech stocks broadly under pressure.
South Korea's bond market also signaled rising tightening expectations. The swap market shows about a 70% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike over the next six months. The Bank of Korea has already raised rates at two consecutive meetings, lifting the benchmark rate to 3%. Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management, believes inflation remains above the central bank's target, and if the global bond selloff continues, Korean yields will find it harder to resist upward pressure. He expects South Korea's 10-year government bond yield could rebound to around 4.6%, while the 3-year yield could rise from 3.98% to 4.1%. South Korea's finance ministry said it may further reduce planned bond issuance and is considering emergency repo operations to ease excessive yield volatility.
The three major A-share indexes closed lower across the board, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.03%, and the ChiNext down 2.61%, with turnover of 1.55 trillion yuan and more than 4,300 stocks declining. Banks, media and film, and wind and solar power bucked the trend, with Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank, and China CITIC Bank hitting new highs, Xinhua Media posting 10 consecutive limit-up days, Kweichow Moutai reclaiming the "king of stocks" intraday, and Seres hitting the limit up in A-shares and rising more than 12% in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index edged up 0.25%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.67%, and the China Enterprises Index rose 0.25%. Mainland bank stocks hit new highs against the market, led by Agricultural Bank of China, ICBC, Bank of China, and Bank of Communications; internet stocks diverged, with Xiaomi down nearly 5% and NetEase up nearly 3%, while optical communications and PCB weakened, with Cambridge Technology down nearly 9% and Guanghe Technology down nearly 6%.
CITIC Securities believes Hong Kong stocks already have the foundation to resume an upward trend, as earnings growth for major indexes has begun to be revised upward and valuation attractiveness is gradually emerging; however, against the backdrop of high overseas risk-free rates and the restart of AI momentum trades, it still recommends focusing on dividends, AI hardware and AI applications, biotech, and shipping in the short term.
What to watch next:
October 12 (Monday)The IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings are held in Bangkok, running through October 18: Global finance ministers, central bank officials, and heads of international financial institutions will discuss growth, inflation, interest rates, energy shocks, and public debt. If the IMF emphasizes risks from high debt and high interest rates, long-end U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and gold could all be affected.
The OCP Global Summit is held in San Jose, running through October 15: The market is watching AI servers, open computing, data center architecture, power supplies, liquid cooling, and networking equipment. If cloud vendors signal new procurement directions, the AI infrastructure chain could benefit.
U.S. stock markets open normally, while the U.S. Treasury cash market is closed all day: CME U.S. Treasury futures trade normally, but the cash market closure will worsen liquidity in the rates market. If oil prices or geopolitical news breaks suddenly, volatility in Treasury futures and the dollar could be amplified.
17:45 The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is announced: The impact on short-term trading is limited, but if the award-winning topic involves growth, debt, AI, or institutional economics, it could spark related policy and long-term investment discussions.
October 13 (Tuesday)
10:00 The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook report: If the IMF downgrades global growth or raises its assessment of inflation or debt risks, markets could turn risk-off, benefiting the dollar and gold while pressuring cyclicals.
15:45 Fed Governor Waller speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum: This is an important Fed signal ahead of the U.S. CPI release. If Waller stresses that inflation remains sticky, Treasury yields and the dollar could strengthen, pressuring tech stocks; if he stresses that more data can be awaited, sentiment toward growth stocks could ease.
21:02 Apple holds its "Welcome Home" smart home new product launch: It is expected to unveil a new generation of Apple TV 4K, HomePod mini, and the home hub device HomeView. The market is watching whether Apple AI can expand from phones to the home entry point, affecting Apple, consumer electronics, smart home, and on-device AI sectors.
UK Parliament AI safety hearing: Meta, Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are invited to attend, and representatives of the UK AI Safety Institute will also participate. If regulatory rhetoric becomes stricter, AI model companies and large tech stocks could face sentiment disruption.
The semiconductor industry's flagship exhibition SEMICON West is held in San Francisco, running through October 15, with an advanced packaging summit: The market is watching semiconductor equipment, advanced packaging, wafer manufacturing, and supply chain expansion signals. This is of reference significance for ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, and TSMC's supply chain.
Qwen AI glasses go on sale in stock: The market is watching whether AI glasses can become a new on-device AI entry point. If sales feedback is positive, it could boost consumer electronics, smart glasses, on-device chips, and AI Agent concepts.
Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, and Domino's Pizza report results: Bank earnings will test net interest margins, trading revenue, and credit risk in a high interest rate environment; UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson will verify the strength of the healthcare sector. If bank credit losses rise, the market could trade a slowdown again.
October 14 (Wednesday)
The U.S. additional port fee on ships owned, operated, or built by China takes effect: This will affect shipping costs and the China-U.S. trade chain. The market is watching the impact on Chinese exporters, shipping companies, and car carrier-related names.
09:30 China's September CPI and PPI are released: If CPI and PPI improve, it indicates a recovery in domestic demand and industrial prices, which is favorable for A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and pro-cyclical assets; if they remain weak, the market will expect more easing policy.
China's September import and export data are released, time to be determined: The data falls on the same day the U.S. additional port fee on Chinese ships takes effect, making it a key window to observe front-loading of exports, re-export trade, and external demand resilience. If exports beat expectations, it is positive for ports, shipping, manufacturing, and China concept sentiment; if they weaken, the renminbi and Chinese assets could come under pressure.
Anthropic holds a Pre-IPO investor day: The market is watching its revenue, cloud partnership costs, compute leasing contracts, and IPO timetable. If it discloses strong revenue growth, AI sentiment will be boosted; if cost pressure is too great, the market will continue to question AI commercial returns.
NVIDIA China Developer Day is held in Suzhou, running through October 16: The market is watching NVIDIA's statements on China ecosystem, developer tools, AI applications, and compute solutions. If there are new partnerships or product updates, it could affect AI applications and discussions of domestic compute substitution.
Earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and ASML report results: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will complete the picture of major bank earnings, BlackRock reflects global asset management fund flows; ASML is a core event for the semiconductor equipment chain, and orders and guidance will affect sentiment in the AI chip sector.