Gold may retest the $4,000 support in the short term, geopolitical conflicts and the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire tug-of-war continue, crude oil edges lower, and the market focuses on this week's U.S. CPI and Fed remarks. Tech stocks rebound near highs, Deutsche Bank downgrades ratings, high AI computing power price signals draw attention, and optimism toward bank stocks cools. Apple, Tesla, and other individual stocks see a flurry of developments.
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Geopolitical dual-front tensions tear at pricing power; will gold retest the $4,000 support in the short term?
Last Friday, the three major US stock indices closed higher collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.83%, the S&P 500 up 0.59%, and the Nasdaq up 0.64%, with all three major indices posting gains for the week.
Trump suddenly announced over the weekend that Russia and Ukraine agreed to immediately implement an "energy ceasefire." Zelensky responded by supporting a halt to attacks on energy facilities but said he was still waiting for specific arrangements from the US side, and noted that Russia still attacked the Kharkiv combined heat and power facility after the announcement. The market instantly seized on signals that refined product supply could improve, weighing on diesel and oil risk premiums, but doubts about implementation kept traders from making one-sided bets. Meanwhile, Riyadh International Airport in Saudi Arabia was attacked again, causing a fire and injuries, and the Houthis also claimed to have struck Dammam Airport and Saudi Aramco facilities; Trump said US forces could participate in actions against the Houthis. Talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz also reached a deadlock, with Iran saying the US response to seven conditions was "insufficient." Middle East escalation and the Russia-Ukraine "ceasefire" narrative stood side by side, and crude oil edged lower.
Gold and silver rebounded on dip-buying, with New York futures gold back above around $4,200 and silver back above $60; copper prices strengthened in tandem, lifting miner sentiment. UBS said gold may retest the $4,000 support in the short term, with dip-buying expected to build a bottom, and forecast $4,600 in December, $5,000 in March 2027, $5,200 in June, and $5,400 in September.
US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 10-year yield at about 5.24%, in a high percentile of its 52-week range. Although last Friday's 30-year auction cleared at 5.618%, the highest since August 2000, the 30-year Treasury yield still held near the 5.6% high. Pimco CIO Ivascyn warned that high oil prices and public debt concerns could push the 10-year Treasury yield toward 6%.
US Treasury traders are watching this week's September CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the IMF annual meeting on Friday to judge the next pace. Bessent revealed that federal debt has risen to about $41 trillion, plans to announce a consolidation plan after the midterm elections, and expects economic growth above 3% this quarter.
Tech stocks rebound near short-term highs; institutional optimism on bank stocks has clearly cooled
On Friday, tech stocks led a US equity rebound as investors bought AI heavyweights again after the OpenAI revenue shock, but scrutiny of AI revenue definitions and capital returns has clearly intensified. Deutsche Bank warned, however, that this tech rally since July is already near a short-term high, with about 4% upside now and historical downside risk of up to 16%, making the risk-reward less attractive than before, so it downgraded US tech and large-cap growth stocks from "overweight" to "neutral."
An important signal also emerged in the AI compute market: short-term compute is too expensive. Goldman Sachs data show that US AI compute short-term rental prices can reach $40 billion to $50 billion per gigawatt per year, while long-term contracts are about $20 billion to $30 billion, and the return threshold for large cloud providers building their own compute is about $12 billion. In other words, short-term rental compute prices are now four times the self-build cost threshold. Goldman Sachs believes companies such as Google are willing to rent compute at high prices because self-building cannot keep up with demand. Once supply catches up, spot prices may fall. For compute rental companies such as CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN, this is both an opportunity and a risk.
Nvidia is also being reassessed by the market. SemiAnalysis pointed out that Nvidia's total off-balance-sheet guarantees have risen to $530 billion, involving supply commitments, data center backstop agreements, and AI cloud services. As long as AI investment remains hot, these commitments are not a problem; but if AI infrastructure slows, the market will begin to worry about financial pressure.
In addition, bank earnings season begins this week, but institutional optimism on bank stocks has clearly cooled. A Truist Securities survey shows only 35% of institutions expect bank stocks to outperform the broader market, far below 68% in July. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said fixed income and commodities trading were slightly weaker than a year earlier, while Morgan Stanley's co-president said the third quarter will be difficult to match the second quarter. The financial sector has fallen about 4% over the past month, and the combined market value of the five largest banks has shrunk by about $270 billion.
Specific project moves and stock price fluctuations:
Moderna rose 14.21%, Humana rose 11.6%: Moderna hit a new high since December 2022, was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index, and was boosted by news that NIH is advancing cancer vaccine research; US government data showed that 95% of Humana's 2027 Medicare Advantage plan enrollees received a four-star or higher rating, while Oppenheimer raised its target price to $475. Biotech stocks rose broadly: Novavax gained 15.8%, Merck and Gilead Sciences rose more than 2%, and the Biotech Index ETF rose 3%.
Palantir rose 5.17%, with the stock hitting a record high: Goldman Sachs upgraded it from neutral to buy with a target price of $230, implying about 18% upside; Barclays gave it an overweight rating with a target price of $265, citing deep competitive moats. AI application software stocks surged: Snowflake and Datadog jumped 7%, and the AI application software stock index rose 2.90%.
Lumentum rose 5.22%: the CEO said about 70% of demand for some products next year cannot be met, while some other products still face a 30% shortfall through 2028, "completely sold out, with no end in sight."
Micron Technology closed down about 1%: the board approved raising the amount available for discretionary buybacks from December 9 to $35.16 billion; about $2.2 billion of the previous $10 billion plan was unused, and the stock has risen about 260% year to date. Semiconductor stocks fell: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 0.41% and 4.3% for the week, ARM fell 3.27%, Intel and AMD fell more than 2%, and TSMC fell more than 1%.
Apple fell 1.11%: sharply higher memory chip costs forced price increases and dampened demand, and the company asked some suppliers to cut production of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max components, with this month's orders at least 15% below initial requests. Consumer electronics came under pressure, but Apple will still hold a "Welcome Home" smart home event on October 13, expected to launch HomeView, a new HomePod mini, and Apple TV 4K.
T-Mobile fell more than 13%, AT&T fell nearly 10%, Verizon fell 8.7%: SpaceX reached an agreement to acquire nationwide low-band wireless spectrum assets, directly challenging traditional wireless carriers. The related telecom sector closed down 0.4%, becoming one of the few declining sectors in the S&P 500.
Gold, silver, and copper concept stocks strengthened: Southern Copper rose more than 5%, and BHP and Pan American Silver rose more than 2%, driven by the rebound in gold, silver, and copper prices and operating data from some miners.
Mag 7 performance: Amazon rose 3.29% (UOB and Amazon Web Services signed a memorandum of understanding to explore AI-driven banking innovation in ASEAN); Microsoft rose 2.38% (CEO Nadella launched a new-generation rapid decision-making AI model, Decision-1); Tesla rose 2.05% (FSD was renamed in Europe and the Roadster event was moved to October 15); Google rose 0.87%, Meta fell 0.31%, Nvidia fell 0.52%, Apple fell 1.11%.
IREN surged more than 8% in after-hours trading: Anthropic has signed an undisclosed multi-year cloud services agreement with IREN to expand its roughly $530 billion data center leasing partnership network. Analysts estimate that if a 245-megawatt campus comes online one month early, it could add more than $1.3 billion in revenue for Anthropic.
What to watch next:
October 12 (Monday)
The IMF and World Bank annual meetings are held in Bangkok and run through October 18: global finance ministers, central bank officials, and heads of international financial institutions will discuss growth, inflation, interest rates, energy shocks, and public debt. If the IMF emphasizes high debt and high interest rate risks, long-end US Treasury yields, the dollar, and gold could all be affected.
14:00 EU foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg: the meeting will discuss the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation, and the security implications of further EU enlargement. If sanctions on Russia or Middle East security statements are tougher, oil prices, gold, and European defense stocks could be supported.
US stocks open normally, while the US Treasury cash market is closed all day: CME US Treasury futures trade normally, but the cash market closure will worsen liquidity in the rates market. If oil prices or geopolitical news break suddenly, volatility in Treasury futures and the dollar could be amplified.
17:45 The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is announced: the impact on short-term trading is limited, but if the winning topic involves growth, debt, AI, or institutional economics, it could spark related policy and long-term investment discussions.The OCP Global Summit is being held in San Jose and runs through October 15: the market is focused on AI servers, open computing, data center architecture, power supplies, liquid cooling, and networking equipment. If cloud providers signal new procurement directions, the AI infrastructure chain could benefit.
October 13 (Tuesday)
10:00 The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook report: if the IMF downgrades global growth or raises its assessment of inflation or debt risks, the market may turn risk-off, benefiting the dollar and gold while cyclical stocks come under pressure.
15:45 Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum: this is an important Fed signal before the U.S. CPI release. If Waller stresses that inflation remains sticky, Treasury yields and the dollar may strengthen, pressuring tech stocks; if he stresses that more data can be awaited, sentiment in growth stocks may ease.
21:02 Apple holds its "Welcome Home" smart home new product launch: it is expected to unveil a new generation of Apple TV 4K, HomePod mini, and the home hub device HomeView. The market is watching whether Apple's AI can expand from phones to the home gateway, affecting Apple, consumer electronics, smart home, and on-device AI sectors.
UK Parliament AI safety hearing: Meta, Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are invited to attend, and representatives of the UK AI Safety Institute will also participate. If regulatory rhetoric becomes stricter, AI model companies and large tech stocks may face sentiment disruption.
The semiconductor industry's flagship exhibition SEMICON West is being held in San Francisco and runs through October 15, with an advanced packaging summit: the market is focused on signals for semiconductor equipment, advanced packaging, wafer manufacturing, and supply chain expansion. This has reference significance for ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, and TSMC's supply chain.
Qwen AI glasses go on sale in stock: the market is watching whether AI glasses can become a new on-device AI gateway. If sales feedback is positive, it could boost consumer electronics, smart glasses, on-device chips, and AI Agent concepts.
Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, and Domino's Pizza report results: bank earnings will test net interest margins, trading revenue, and credit risk in a high-rate environment; UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson will verify the momentum of the healthcare sector. If bank credit losses rise, the market may trade a slowdown again.
October 14 (Wednesday)
The U.S. additional port fee on ships owned, operated, or built by China takes effect: this will affect shipping costs and the China-U.S. trade chain. The market is focused on the impact on Chinese exporters, shipping companies, and car carrier vessels.
09:30 China's September CPI and PPI are released: if CPI and PPI improve, it indicates a recovery in domestic demand and industrial prices, which is favorable for A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and pro-cyclical assets; if they remain weak, the market will expect more easing policy.
China's September import and export data are released, time to be determined: the data falls on the same day the U.S. additional port fee on Chinese ships takes effect, making it a key window to observe front-loading of exports, re-export trade, and external demand resilience. If exports are stronger than expected, it is positive for ports, shipping, manufacturing, and China concept sentiment; if weaker, the renminbi and Chinese assets may come under pressure.
20:30 U.S. September CPI and core CPI are released: the most important macro data this week. If core CPI rises 0.3% month over month or more, discussion of an October rate hike may heat up again, Treasury yields and the dollar may rise, and gold and high-valuation tech stocks may come under pressure; if below expectations, AI and growth stocks may continue to rebound.
17:40 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks: Bowman typically focuses more on inflation risks. If her remarks are hawkish, they may reinforce expectations of a December rate hike.
Anthropic holds a Pre-IPO investor day: the market is focused on its revenue, cloud partnership costs, compute leasing contracts, and IPO timetable. If it discloses strong revenue growth, AI sentiment will be boosted; if cost pressure is too great, the market will continue to question AI commercial returns.
NVIDIA China Developer Day is held in Suzhou and runs through October 16: the market is focused on NVIDIA's statements on China ecosystem, developer tools, AI applications, and compute solutions. If there are new partnerships or product updates, it could affect AI applications and discussions of domestic compute substitution.
Earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and ASML report results: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will complete the picture of major bank earnings, BlackRock reflects global asset management fund flows; ASML is a core event in the semiconductor equipment chain, and orders and guidance will affect sentiment in the AI chip sector.
October 15 (Thursday)
02:00 The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions: the Beige Book will reflect consumption, employment, wages, and prices across U.S. regions. If it shows a strong economy and high inflation stickiness, rate hike expectations will rise; if it shows cooling demand, interest rate pressure may ease.
The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting is held: the market is focused on discussions of global debt, inflation, exchange rates, and financial stability. If the meeting emphasizes fiscal risks and high-rate pressure, it may continue to affect long-end bond yields.
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10: if initial claims remain low, it indicates the labor market is still tight and the Fed will find it difficult to turn dovish quickly; if they rise significantly, trading on an economic slowdown may heat up.
Domestic refined oil products open a new round of price adjustment window: if oil prices are raised, it will affect transportation, logistics, and chemical costs; if lowered, it will help ease inflation pressure.
Tesla holds an event for its next-generation Roadster: the market is focused on the new car's performance, mass production timing, and whether it incorporates SpaceX-related technology. If the launch exceeds expectations, Tesla and the high-end EV chain may receive sentiment catalysts; if it is delayed again, the market may be disappointed.
Earnings: TSMC reports third-quarter results, and Alcoa reports after the bell: TSMC is the most critical event in the AI hardware chain, with the market focused on AI chip demand, advanced process capacity utilization, advanced packaging revenue, and capital expenditure plans. If guidance is strong, NVIDIA, semiconductor equipment, AI servers, and the optical module chain will benefit; if demand or capital expenditure slows, AI hardware stocks may come under pressure.
October 16 (Friday)
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh attends the IMF annual meeting and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva: this is the finale event of the week. Warsh will speak after U.S. CPI, PPI, and retail sales, and the market will focus on whether he supports a December rate hike. If he is hawkish, the dollar and Treasury yields may rise, pressuring U.S. stocks; if he stresses that the bond market has already tightened financial conditions, growth stocks may rebound.
iPhone Duo opens pre-orders: the market is focused on demand for Apple's new products and acceptance of pricing. If pre-orders are strong, it is positive for Apple's supply chain, consumer electronics, memory, and optics; if below expectations, concerns about Apple demand will intensify.