October 2026 stands at a critically important historical turning point. We are standing at the end of the depression phase of the fifth Kondratieff wave (the information technology era), about to enter the recovery phase of the sixth Kondratieff wave (centered on the energy revolution and artificial intelligence).
Author: SOL Who Can't Understand
Getting rich in life depends on the Kondratiev wave. That's right.
Starting in October 2026, the best dollar-cost averaging opportunity arrives.
The saying "getting rich in life depends on the Kondratiev wave," widely circulated in investment circles, precisely summarizes the very profound connection between cycles and individual wealth accumulation.
October 2026 stands at a crucial historical turning point. We are standing at the end of the depression phase of the fifth Kondratiev cycle (the information technology era), about to enter the recovery phase of the sixth Kondratiev cycle (centered on the energy revolution and artificial intelligence).
Looking back at the five Kondratiev cycles already experienced, each corresponds to a technological revolution. As shown in the figure below, the first period called the Kondratiev wave, that is, the stage from 1782 to 1845, was led by Britain, and it was through textiles and the steam engine that the first industrial revolution began;
The second Kondratiev wave, that is, the period from 1845 to 1892, was still dominated by Britain, but the increasing popularity of steel and railways pushed it to its climax;
The third Kondratiev wave, from 1892 to 1948, saw the leading country shift from Europe to the United States, with electricity, heavy chemicals, and the internal combustion engine becoming the main players of that era;
The fourth period called the Kondratiev wave, that is, the stage from 1948 to 1991, was led by the United States, with automobiles and computers driving the prosperity of postwar globalization;
The fifth Kondratiev wave, that is, the period from 1991 to 2035 as predicted, still had the United States in a leading position, with information technology and the internet profoundly changing the entire world.
We can clearly see that each time the Kondratiev wave moves from depression to recovery, this process requires major technological breakthroughs as a catalyst, just as the first round relied on railways and steelmaking, the second round on electricity and heavy chemicals, the third round on automobiles, and the fourth round on information technology.
In the past few years, the world experienced a series of shocks such as the "mask" period, geopolitical conflicts, and soaring inflation, which exactly fit the typical characteristics of the Kondratiev depression phase, namely a pattern of low growth alternating with inflation and deflation, with old growth drivers exhausting, causing society to enter a painful clearing-out stage.
The fifth Kondratiev wave was driven by information technology, beginning around 1991, and the prosperity and recession it went through have already become past history. At the present moment in 2026, we are in a "transitional gap" where old forces have already faded and new forces have not yet matured, yet this is precisely the golden window for positioning for the future.
Looking from 2026 toward the next ten years, the inspiration provided by the Kondratiev cycle is very clear: the core driving force moving from depression toward recovery must be entirely new technology capable of bringing about a productivity revolution.
Turning our gaze to the column in the chart for each Kondratiev cycle's "technological breakthroughs from depression to recovery," we can see: the first round was Watt's improvement of the steam engine, and the rise of railways; the second round was the invention of generators, internal combustion engines, and incandescent lamps; the third round was the advent of diesel-powered cars and electronic computers; the fourth round was the birth of the personal PC and the World Wide Web. The fifth round saw information technology and the internet profoundly change the entire world.
What will lead the development of this recovery is precisely the technological breakthroughs of the sixth Kondratiev cycle predicted in the chart (time range 2035 to 2080), specifically the energy revolution and artificial intelligence.
Next, what should we do?
Why 2026-2030 is the best dollar-cost averaging zone
It is not because I have foreseen some market trend - I do not have that ability. It is because I re-derived my own dollar-cost averaging plan for the next ten years, and the conclusion is clear: the five years from 2026 to 2030 are the best dollar-cost averaging interval I can see.
Three reasons, ranked by importance.
One, position: the sowing stage of the Kondratiev cycle
Zhou Jintao's division of the fifth information technology Kondratiev wave during his lifetime was: recovery 1982-1991, prosperity 1991-2004, recession 2004-2015, depression 2015-2025. He died in 2016 and did not have time to draw the sixth wave. But the consensus deduction in cycle research circles is: 2025-2026 is the shift point from depression to recovery.
Note that the recovery phase is not the prosperity phase. Its characteristics are repeated bottoming, structural differentiation, and no broad-based rally - it rises and falls back, falls and climbs back again.
This characteristic is torture for market timers, but a gift for dollar-cost averagers. The strategy of dollar-cost averaging fears the prosperity phase most: prices go all the way north, and every purchase is more expensive than the last. What it likes most is exactly the environment of the recovery phase - the market repeatedly gives you discounts, and your average cost is pressed to a low level by wave after wave of volatility.
On the matter of position, in one sentence: 2026-2030 is the sowing stage of the next cycle, and dollar-cost averaging is the natural sowing tool.
Two, vehicle: the index you dollar-cost average is the engine of this cycle
The technological vehicle of the sixth Kondratiev wave is AI, computing power, and the digital economy.
Open the constituent list of the Nasdaq 100: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta - the core assets of the sixth Kondratiev wave are this index itself. The same applies to the S&P 500; among its top ten weights, digital economy companies account for an absolute majority.
More critically, these two indices rebalance on schedule every December: bringing in those that can make the most money and throwing out those that cannot. I do not need to judge which company will win in this technological revolution - I only need to be certain of one thing: no matter who wins, it will most likely be in the Nasdaq 100.
Dollar-cost averaging into a self-renewing digital economy collection is equivalent to turning the industrial dividend of the sixth Kondratiev wave into my recurring deposit.
Three, time: sowing must come before prosperity
This is the point most easily overlooked.
A Kondratiev cycle usually takes more than five years to go from recovery to prosperity. That is to say, people who start dollar-cost averaging in 2026 will already have accumulated five years of cheap chips by the time the prosperity stage arrives around 2030; while people who enter only in 2030 can only chase higher all the way at prosperity-phase prices.
In the same cycle, the cost structure of people who entered in the first five years and those who entered in the last five years is two different worlds. This is the meaning of "interval" - the window is not a certain day, but those years in which sowing must come before harvest.
So 2026-2030 is my personal judgment of the best dollar-cost averaging zone.