AI industry giants are privately gaming out responses to major incidents. Executives at Anthropic and OpenAI worry about public backlash and are engaging with Congress early to shape future regulatory policy. The AI regulatory landscape may be on the verge of dramatic change.
Author: Bu Shuqing, Wall Street CN
The AI industry is preparing for a major incident that could reshape the regulatory landscape.
According to a recent Axios report, executives at companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI are privately gaming out how American society and the political world would react if AI causes serious real-world harm.
These exercises focus on extreme scenarios such as large-scale cyberattacks, including disruptions to financial services, internet connectivity, and even power and water systems. Industry insiders worry that if a major incident caused by unsafe AI occurs, a public already cautious about the technology could turn further against it, and AI companies and their executives would face greater public pressure.
The report says multiple AI industry figures believe a major incident could occur within the next 6 to 12 months. Executives have therefore begun engaging with U.S. lawmakers in advance, hoping to influence the laws and policies the U.S. government formulates after a crisis actually occurs.
AI companies fear a major incident could trigger public backlash
According to Axios, AI companies are assessing the political and social reactions that could follow a major incident. Relevant scenarios include swarms of out-of-control AI agents breaking out of internal testing environments, or malicious actors using existing models to carry out attacks.
Companies worry that if AI causes serious real-world harm for the first time, a public already cautious about the technology could turn further against it.
Industry leaders such as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as well as U.S. President Trump, who has been criticized for being unwilling to strengthen AI regulation, could all come under greater public pressure.
Companies engage early to prepare for post-incident regulation
According to the report, AI companies are using red-team testing to game out worst-case scenarios while accelerating efforts to educate U.S. lawmakers about AI.
Executives believe the conditions for advancing regulatory legislation are currently limited, but a major incident could change the direction of the policy debate. They therefore want to participate in relevant discussions early to influence the laws and policies the U.S. government may formulate at that time.
Some Democrats have proposed banning superintelligence or pausing advanced AI development. Other proposals have drawn bipartisan support and even backing from some in the industry, such as requiring advanced AI systems to have emergency shutdown switches. However, experts also question whether shutting down all AI systems across the board is feasible in practice.
At the same time, a large number of open-weight models can already be downloaded and used for free, adding to the complexity of risk governance. Many cybersecurity professionals believe using AI to counter malicious AI is one way to address the problem.
Tighter regulation faces real-world constraints
Even if a major AI incident triggers a strong backlash, the U.S. government could face multiple constraints when formulating a response.
AI infrastructure buildout is already deeply intertwined with the global economy. Slowing related construction could deal a blow to an already fragile economy. That means the government would also have to contend with the economic impact when considering tighter AI regulation.
Political divisions are also a concern for companies. Some in the AI industry expect Democrats may push for stricter AI restrictions after the midterm elections, but even if Democrats control both the House and the Senate, intraparty divisions could still affect the policy push.
Axios cited a Democratic aide as saying that in a real crisis, the two parties in Washington might temporarily set aside their differences. The cooperation during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis is seen as a possible reference.
At present, it remains uncertain whether a major AI incident will occur in the next 6 to 12 months. What is certain is that companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI have begun gaming out policy scenarios after an incident and are trying to participate early in related regulatory discussions.