PANews October 12 news, according to Yahoo Finance, despite a stronger dollar and rising U.S. real interest rates putting pressure on gold, UBS remains bullish on the medium- to long-term trend of gold prices, expecting gold to find support near $4,000 per ounce and rise to $5,400 by September 2027. The bank believes that the divergence between short-term speculative funds reducing positions and medium- to long-term allocation demand is key to understanding the current gold price trend.
UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that rising real interest rates and a firm dollar have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, and the recent reduction in net long positions in gold futures and options by non-commercial traders has also increased downward pressure on prices. However, gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings remain resilient, with sustained inflows in recent weeks, indicating that some investors have not withdrawn from the gold market in tandem.
This divergence means that speculative funds reducing positions may push short-term gold prices lower, but it does not necessarily represent a reversal in medium- to long-term allocation demand. UBS also believes that gold has shown greater resilience in the face of a sharp rise in U.S. real yields than in the past, reflecting that structural demand may be partially offsetting interest rate pressure. However, real interest rates and the dollar remain important variables affecting short-term movements, and gold prices cannot be ruled out from falling further.